Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 14.461379 16.539577 18.779666 21.369871 24.278368 27.439335 31.130629
2025-02-23 11.206459 13.978661 17.200465 21.205791 26.034820 31.651352 38.659623
2025-03-02 9.733292 12.833957 16.613889 21.531507 27.727306 35.238654 44.994569
2025-03-09 8.470797 11.743790 15.908861 21.551261 28.941787 38.232478 50.726524
2025-03-16 7.420155 10.754172 15.160371 21.344135 29.720961 40.585103 55.635579
2025-03-23 6.702812 10.113172 14.776551 21.531624 30.960243 43.529876 61.403043
2025-03-30 6.263741 9.799527 14.784587 22.212235 32.858070 47.398831 68.552655
2025-04-06 5.632237 9.134232 14.223174 22.018677 33.484712 49.519039 73.366636
2025-04-13 4.851766 8.162389 13.123177 20.937941 32.734747 49.624065 75.300527
2025-04-20 4.562087 7.918678 13.081089 21.407791 34.254489 53.011732 82.053256
2025-04-27 4.288452 7.671300 13.005882 21.806641 35.669213 56.289616 88.770267
2025-05-04 3.932861 7.253635 12.624542 21.688809 36.266194 58.355921 93.751666
2025-05-11 3.567950 6.793520 12.149241 21.402374 36.604602 60.082617 98.365007
2025-05-18 3.308227 6.492064 11.911245 21.482728 37.525223 62.742942 104.533409
2025-05-25 3.104554 6.269354 11.783896 21.727945 38.709623 65.847728 111.503060
2025-06-01 2.887648 6.000958 11.554167 21.776427 39.559279 68.443541 117.760738
2025-06-08 2.651023 5.671838 11.189002 21.557749 39.933106 70.268234 122.830994
2025-06-15 2.495794 5.484892 11.064058 21.750208 41.010862 73.279648 129.943290
2025-06-22 2.419385 5.447040 11.209558 22.435902 42.977376 77.845733 139.801830
2025-06-29 2.235906 5.173742 10.889970 22.240968 43.364370 79.749249 145.256940
2025-07-06 1.963279 4.687250 10.122011 21.150239 42.067857 78.696038 145.622206
2025-07-13 1.890486 4.621310 10.173562 21.624426 43.654833 82.706690 154.846866
2025-07-20 1.814420 4.540928 10.189302 22.026899 45.123164 86.560331 163.933773